[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W TO A
SECOND 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N41W TO 08N47W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 09N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE W OF THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 14N54W TO 07N57W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND E CONUS ANCHORED IN THE
E PACIFIC REGION S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AT THE
SURFACE...A SHALLOW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N92W TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 21N91W TO 17N91W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
FEATURES. TO THE SE...REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 24N E
OF 86W AFFECTING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT
FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 71W. TO THE E...AN ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W VENEZUELA WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE W TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN CUBA AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N AND W OF
69W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS
THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 71W-
76W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 340 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ISLAND. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE ISLAND IS
PROVIDING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THIS ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE ISLAND THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THEREFORE A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT E OF TURKS AND CAICOS
AND RACE NE DRAGGING THE FRONT E BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 22N77W AND EXTENDS TO
25N63W TO 31N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 52W-78W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
W ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT E OF TURKS
AND CAICOS AND RACE NE DRAGGING THE FRONT E BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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