[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED FOR THE 14/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 19N IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD...TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W
AND 74W...AND IN EASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND THE
WESTERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR
15N17W TO 14N22W 07N30W AND 09N40W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N/11N
BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS 05N19W 11N27W 13N19W
05N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF
BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS PARTS OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
FLORIDA-TO-GULF OF MEXICO-MEXICO COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.
THE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
U.S.A....CROSSING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W...TO FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W...TO 26N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY FROM 26N92W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 31N107W IN NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO 26N82W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 28N77W 26N87W 24N97W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 26N72W 24N76W...AND SOUTH OF 24N80W
24N85W 22N90W. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO COAST...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 71W/72W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 85W/86W FROM 22N IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO COASTAL HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W
WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
66W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 76W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.75 IN
ACAPULCO...0.49 IN TEGUCIGALPA...0.33 IN BERMUDA...0.25 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.19 IN MONTERREY MEXICO...0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE
BAHAMAS...0.10 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.09 IN ST.THOMAS IN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.08 IN TRINIDAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MIXED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA...AND FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA.
PUNTA CANA ALSO IS REPORTING SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA...SENDING NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR
700 MB FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ROUGHLY FROM 28N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA...SENDING EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS ALSO WILL
PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTERING THE
WIND DIRECTIONS ACCORDINGLY.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N48W. LARGE
SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO 28N...INCLUDING THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
SOUTH AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 37W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LARGE AND
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N56W 24N58W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 16W AND 40W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT ARE PASSING
THROUGH 32N24W 26N30W 26N36W 27N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND
30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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