[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 67.1W AT 04/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 182 NM SW OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 120 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N-
35N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N34W TO 07N32W...MOVING W AT 05-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WHICH SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 17N38W TO 09N37W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 32W AND 44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N
BETWEEN 36W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
19N23W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N34W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
10N36W TO 10N44W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
THE AXIS AND BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE NE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WITH
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISRUPTION OF TRADE WIND FLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS FROM NEAR 17N85W TO 18N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. TO THE
E...A DIFFLUENT FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
17N AND E OF 70W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHILE S TO SW WINDS ARE S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE S TO SE TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF
NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN MOVES
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN IS
BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. AT THIS TIME...A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AFFECTING ALSO THE NW PORTION OF THE ISLAND. A SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE W OF THE ISLAND WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SW
ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC...W
OF JOAQUIN...FROM A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N79W.
THE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N77W TO 27N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM NE OF THE BOUNDARY. E OF JOAQUIN...A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 27N57W TO THE LOW THEN TO 25N48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 100 NM W OF
THE LOW CENTER. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N55W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDING FROM 21N39W TO
31N18W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE LOW ARE
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
CIRCULATION OF JOAQUIN WILL EXIT OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH
DECREASING INFLUENCES ON THE SW ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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