[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 74.4W AT 01/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 65 NM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MOVING SW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 71W-77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 71W-85W.
SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N56W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N65W INTO
THE LOW CENTER THEN TO 27N48W. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N58W TO A BASE
NEAR 22N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 21N-
30N BETWEEN 48W-65W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA HAS DEPICTED GALE
FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST N OF THE LOW CENTER
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 50W-60W. A HIGH CHANCE EXISTS OF THE LOW
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM 17N28W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N26W...MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 20W-
33W AND TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. WITH THIS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-20N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 11N44W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INVERTED V PATTERN BETWEEN 30W-45W
SUPPORTING THE WAVE LOCATION. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MANLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. DESPITE THIS FACT...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
10N30W TO 12N37W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ALONG 26W...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A RELATIVELY SHARP MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO A BASE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 20N91W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 26N93W TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AREA NEAR 29N83W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
S...A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N90W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N92W TO 24N88W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-91W. LOOKING
AHEAD...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOSTLY MODERATE TO
FRESH N-NW WINDS THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC JUST N OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 17N. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL
FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
AND MARINE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
BOTH ISLANDS. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN EAST
...THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW HAS BEEN DISRUPTED ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY E OF 75W
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL W OF 75W.
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N87W TO
21N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS N OF
PANAMA MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN
TRACKS NORTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BANDS OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN EXTEND ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND. A MARINE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN REMAINS JUST N OF THE ISLAND.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC IS HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N81W TO
35N74W THEN N ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC. S OF THE FRONT...A 1003 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N80W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 31N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. TO THE E...A 1006 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N55W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N47W TO 30N29W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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