[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W TO 08N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N15W TO 05N22W
04N33W...AND TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 45W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W
AND 49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 15N
BETWEEN 46W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
BEYOND LOUISIANA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 87W WESTWARD.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ALSO FROM 87W EASTWARD.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
24N98W. THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO...BEYOND
24N100W 30N106W BEYOND 31N108W IN NORTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/LIFR CONDITIONS...AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGLS...KXIH...
AND KVBS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KIPN AND KVOA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START
IN A FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
27N72W...TO A 20N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 16N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 63W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...ACROSS HAITI...TO 14N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 13N72W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TO 22N68W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...27N65W...AND BEYOND 32N61W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N73W TO 05N77W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 04N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N70W 05N74W
01N78W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT
THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS HAITI.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 78W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
BARAHONA AT 29/0000 UTC. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AT EACH LEVEL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO
800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 25N20W TO 16N30W 15N43W TO 15N60W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 26N28W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N30W AND 10N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 24W
AND 33W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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