[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N19W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 05N40W TO 05N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 13W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
GULF IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE NW
GULF FROM 29N95W TO 26N97W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE SE US IS
PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW GULF WITH ONGOING
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC TO E
CUBA AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA.
ASCENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...AND S OF 10N E OF 78W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG 69W.
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE E OF 69W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE W OF 69W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE JUST E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS TO THE WEST.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. THESE
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGHS DRIFT SLOWLY WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC TO 31N72W TO E
CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N67W TO 25N70W TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N62W
TO 19N65W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N49W TO
05N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N26W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED N OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED
MILES OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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