[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...CURVING TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N18W TO 04N21W AND 04N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...AND WITHIN 30
NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N11W 03N15W 04N21W 04N30W
06N34W...AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N45W TO 09N48W AND 04N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB
ALONG 48W FROM 05N TO 13N.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
FROM 11N60W TO 14N60W TO 12N51W 17N32W...BEYOND 25N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND LOUISIANA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W
WESTWARD.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 85W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 85W/86W EASTWARD.

NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AS EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/MVFR CONDITIONS...AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KVOA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...TO JAMAICA AND 15N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-
SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 60W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W TO 26N68W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 76W. IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N74W TO 06N77W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 06N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN COLOMBIA
FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W AT THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.15 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.13 IN BERMUDA...0.02 IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.02 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N68W...TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER WERE PART OF THE 28/0000 UTC OBSERVATION.
RAINSHOWERS WERE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO
800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 24N20W TO 10N40W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO A 27N27W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N42W AND 13N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 25W
AND 33W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net