[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N63W TO 20N69W. EXPECT
NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 16 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE BORDER
OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W AND 06N13W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N13W TO 03N22W 04N33W AND 03N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 48W...AND FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
FROM 12N64W TO 14N60W TO 16N50W 18N30W...BEYOND 21N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 89W WESTWARD.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 89W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
30N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 89W EASTWARD.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
AREA FROM 85W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 24N97W TO
19N95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LINE 24N95W 19N91W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/MVFR CONDITIONS...AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGLS...KATP...KEIR...KVOA...AND KMIS.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO
27N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN JAMAICA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 18N62W...TO TRINIDAD.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600
MB TO 800 MB CUTS RIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
BECOMES EASTERLY IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOME OF IT BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N64W AND 21N66W. A
SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 21N66W...ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO EASTERN
JAMAICA...TO 17N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 16N84W NEAR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N62W TO 26N67W TO 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W TO 07N77W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 06N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.17 IN
CURACAO...0.16 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 21N66W...
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 17N80W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 16N84W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO
800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 26N20W 15N30W 06N42W 04N51W...AND FROM 64W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO A 26N26W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N32W 17N45W AND 13N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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