[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 06N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N13W TO
04N20W 04N30W AND 04N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO
10N BETWEEN 29N AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90
NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N11W 04N23W 05N32W 07N40W
08N48W 08N59W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM
HURRICANE SANDRA THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
PRESENT NOW.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 13N IN NICARAGUA TO 23N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO.

NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...TO 28N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COAST...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...AND INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KHQI...KMDJ...KIKT...KMIS...AND KBVE.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N64W...TO 19N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 25N65W... TO
22N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N80W 18N86W...AND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA CURVING TO
18N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 28N60W 26N60W 23N62W 22N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND
64W. ISOLATED MODERATE OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
70W AND 72W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 18N69W TO 16N75W 13N82W TO
12N84W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N72W 14N83W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
PART OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE 08N61W 05N68W IN VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 09N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W AND 83W ALONG THE
BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT THE PRESENT TIME. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH THE FRONT.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...IT WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF OF DAY ONE.
A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO JAMAICA.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO...AND BE THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN A
TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY
ONE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY
TWO...BEING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12HOURS OF DAY
ONE. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS...AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO A
POSITION THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA AFTER 12 HOURS OR SO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE.  THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO...INTO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 32N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 28N49W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 11N TO 18N. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 17N.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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