[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W
AFRICA COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 04N27W TO 05N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER N CAROLINA NEAR 36N82W. WITH THIS...DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A COLD FRONT THEN ENTERS
THE N CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N78W TO
19N87W TO 16N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE S OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 70W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI
TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N61W TO 20N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT
MAINLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE COLD
FRONT. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 27N57W
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N42W TO 28N48W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1041
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 43N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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