[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST
LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE E-SE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE
AROUND 22/0000 UTC N OF THE FRONT W OF 94W. BY SUNDAY MORNING...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED UP TO 40 KT S OF 25N W OF 95W OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N09W TO
08N16W TO 06N27W TO 07N38W TO 05N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 18W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
GULF NEAR 27N82W W-SW TO 23N96W. AS THE FRONT BECOMES WEAKER
CLOSER TO THE MEXICO COAST...STRONG RIDGING ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 25N97W TO 18N94W. GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...MODERATE TO FRESH
N-NW WINDS CONTINUE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 26N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THE NORTHERN WINDS
ARE FUELING AN ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY SATURDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SE
CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED W OF 70W...HOWEVER A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 11N84W TO 16N84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 78W-85W. FARTHER EAST...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING OVER NE VENEZUELA AND ALSO PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER A CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N51W W-SW TO
17N65W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-69W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS NE VENEZUELA IN RESPONSE TO
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 30N77W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N80W. WHILE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN NW OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. THIS ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 25N78W TO 32N71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N70W. FARTHER EAST...A VIGOROUS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N52W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A
1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N53W. THE PARTIALLY OCCLUDED LOW
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N46W TO 25N46W TO 20N51W TO 17N64W
IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...WHERE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 41W-
47W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 38N16W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH S-SW TO 15N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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