[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN  TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 06N14W AND 05N16W. SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W...TO 10N28W 08N35W 05N37W AND 04N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 05N16W TO 06N32W 06N42W AND NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
05N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N31W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 08N TO 31N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS ABOUT 17/1800
UTC. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N99W IN MEXICO...THROUGH 26N94W...BEYOND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 86W WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS EASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 22N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF...
KGHB...KATP...KGRY..KEIR...KMDJ...KVOA...KMIS...AND KBVE.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM
NORTHWESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
74W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W...AND FROM 14N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 73W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE 14N58W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N52W. THE CURRENT
54W/55W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO21N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE
OBSERVATION FOR 17/0100 UTC SHOWS FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE
OBSERVATION FOR 17/0000 UTC SHOWS FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST WILL START WITH THE CURRENT 81W TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BE ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY
ONE. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD MORE DURING DAY TWO...
BEING ALONG THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY TWO...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AGAIN
IN ORDER TO BE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N75W...
AND EVENTUALLY TO COSTA RICA. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST PART OF DAY TWO. PURELY
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE
MONA PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY
ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH ALONG 79W/80W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N50W. HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO WEATHER REGIMES...AND
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER FORMS NEAR 14N78W BY THE END OF DAY ONE...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE MOVED TO 20N47W. A
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER ENDS UP
NEAR 28N73W. MORE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND
BECOME EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE
WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY TWO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COSTA
RICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS ARE 0.29 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N45W AND
25N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N57W TO 25N66W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 25N66W TO 25N75W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 33N33W 29N38W 26N44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM CUBA AND 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 69W AND FLORIDA...AND IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 28N40W
22N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
FROM 40W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N16W...THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N26W AND 25N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N74W...TO 30N63W AND 30N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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