[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N47W TO 16N41W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL
ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N47W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALS THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SAME REGION RESULTING IN ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N19W TO 06N26W TO 06N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-13N BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM
29N96W TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 22N90W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS GENERALLY W OF 92W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND ACROSS THE MEXICO COAST...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY W OF 80W THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 75W
PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-
80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO 22N64W THAT IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS AND
NORTH OF THE ISLAND INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 35N68W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N62W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N W
OF 77W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 77W. OTHERWISE...
RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS PROVIDING
OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE NOTED IS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 22N64W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 64W-
69W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING SW TO 26N50W TO 25N62W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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