[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N37W TO 07N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SURFACE MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 40W-
44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 04N25W TO 08N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN
16W-20W...FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 25W-29W...AND FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR
26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 80W-92W. A SMALL
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N93W TO
20N95W. 20 KT NE WINDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N89W TO
W HONDURAS AT 15N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
20N BETWEEN 87W-90W TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 1006 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER E PANAMA NEAR 09N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
76W-84W. FURTHER E... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 21N60W TO 17N64W MOVING NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENTLY N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY
OCCURRING BETWEEN 70W-80W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
SUNDAY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N67W TO S FLORIDA AT
26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT TO
INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N63W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N41W TO 26N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 29N17W TO 23N18W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 14W-
18W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N20W. EXPECT THE TWO
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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