[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N82W TO 16N82W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE FAR
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 80W-90W. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO OVER THIS REGION DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
06N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N40W TO 04N51W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 11W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE PIEDMONT S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
ACROSS THE GULF FROM 30N85W TO 24N96W THEN STATIONARY TO THE
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. MOST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF S OF A LINE FROM
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. EVEN WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
BASIN...MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST FROM 20N-25N.
OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST GRADUALLY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ITSELF
ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W AND ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN
78W-85W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDING FOR
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY. A
FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES... HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF
77W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 28N69W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
HOWEVER...OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING SW TO 27N63W THEN WESTWARD
TO 27N70W BECOMING STATIONARY TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT W OF 55W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT E OF 55W. A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N63W TO
23N67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 41N17W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N27W TO 24N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net