[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 10 11:57:17 CST 2015

AXNT20 KNHC 101757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 74.7W AT 10/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 305 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 520
NM W OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N
BETWEEN 71W-76W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM
26N-34N BETWEEN 69W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N58W TO 14N44W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPIC
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 07N-
13N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-
13N BETWEEN 54W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 18N73W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP-
LAYERED MOISTURE WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 69W-75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 68W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N87W TO 17N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N24W TO 07N30W TO 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 03W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER WEST VIRGINIA
SSW TO OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N84W. THE TROUGHING
ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO 24N87W. THE FRONT THEN
CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 22N96W AS STATIONARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO 19N95W. THE FRONT REMAINS
RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE NW GULF WATERS TO
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE A GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO A BROAD BASE OVER NW NICARAGUA.
THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
10N82W TO 15N83W AND IS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOTED
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W-73W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
15N68W AND ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N E OF 66W.
OTHERWISE...SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENERALLY FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 73W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF THE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N68W WILL PROVIDE AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REGION PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM KATE REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA S-SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE FRONT
REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER
EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC
WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF 36N43W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N43W INTO A 1023 MB LOW NEAR 31N45W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N52W THEN
STATIONARY TO NEAR BERMUDA. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...A UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
27N26W THAT SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N32W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWARD TO 33N31W AND
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 25N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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