[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE W OF A COLD FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO ABOUT 140 NM E OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO. S OF 20N AND W OF 95W...NW TO N WINDS TO GALE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT TIME. FOR
MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N73W HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. T.D. TWELVE IS MOVING NW AT
ABOUT 12 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAHAMAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
EXTENDING FROM 15N39W TO 05N41W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EVIDENT AT
700 MB BETWEEN 34W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N59W TO 09N60W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING EVIDENT BETWEEN
56W-62W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-
17N BETWEEN 54W-66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N80W TO 09N81W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE
WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. STRONG NW
WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SHEAR ACROSS THE WAVE WHICH IS
ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N12W TO 07N24W TO 06N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO 07N58W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 46W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF FROM NEAR 29N83W TO A 1010
MB LOW NEAR 29N88W. THE LOW HAS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N91W TO 18N94W. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ARE OVER THE NE GULF...ONE EXTENDING FROM 27N87W TO
23N90W AND THE SECOND ONE FROM 28N84W TO 25N85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTS/TROUGHS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A
GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS. PLEASE REFER TOT HE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT WHILE
WEAKENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA.
TO THE S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...UPGRADED TO T.D. TWELVE AS OF 0300
UTC...IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME.
AS THE T.D. MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE E BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 30N75W. AFTER
THIS POINT...IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT AND
CONTINUES TO 30N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW...UPGRADED TO T.D TWELVE AS OF 0300 UTC...IS CENTERED NEAR
23N72W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 31N20W TO 25N27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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