[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082340 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NW OF A COLD FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO ABOUT 90 NM SE OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO. S OF 24N WEST OF THE FRONT...NW TO N WINDS TO
GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT
TIME. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N72W CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TO THE WNW JUST NORTH OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS HIGH. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 12N39W TO 05N41W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SUBTLE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EVIDENT AT
700 MB BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 10N60W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING EVIDENT
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM OF A LINE FROM 13N62W TO 09N52W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N76W TO 10N79W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
OF THIS WAVE WITH A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 73W AND
81W. STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SHEAR ACROSS THE WAVE
WHICH IS ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N20W TO 07N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
07N44W AND CONTINUES TO 07N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE NE GULF FROM NEAR 29N83W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N88W.
MEANWHILE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US AND
NW GULF CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 24N92W
TO 18N95W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 24N90W TO 18N93W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF TO THE W OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG TO LOCALLY
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FL WEST COAST AND 89W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO
N FL THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT AND WEAKEN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW CENTERED NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND
75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. GENERALLY FRESH
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CENTRAL BASIN TROPICAL WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE S OF THE LOW
COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA MONDAY...THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE. HOWEVER...A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N72W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N72W.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N20W TO 27N25W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 19N32W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO
28N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC AS IT MOVES TO THE WNW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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