[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE
TO 29N83W WHERE IT BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N88W. FROM THE LOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SW TO 24N92W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED S OF LAKE MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND GENERATES A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT.
GALE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUST UP TO 40 KT AND SEAS REACHING UP
TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES WNW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NW BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY
AND OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE S BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
HIGH. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 04N41W TO 11N38W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM SURFACE TO
850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE WITH PATCHES OF DRY AIR IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWES AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN
35W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 09N59W TO 16N56W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MOSTLY DRY AIR IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR HINDER DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 11N79W TO 18N78W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM
SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THE REGION LIMITS THE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N21W TO 06N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
06N43W TO 08N53W TO 08N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
FROM 03N-10N E OF 36W AND FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 43W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
29N83W WHERE IT BRIEFLY TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N88W. FROM THE LOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO
24N92W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THIS FRONT IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH BASE OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO 25N88W TO 23N90W AND A TROUGH IN THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO 18N93W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE LOW AND AT THE TAIL OF THE
FRONT FROM 19N TO 22N W OF 94W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED S
OF LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND
GENERATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS W OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NW GULF...DENSE FOG AND HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW
IS E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUST UP
TO 40 KT AND SEAS REACHING UP TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE SW AND NE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
NEAR 78W...ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-
79W. PLEASE REFER TO WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. E OF
THE TRPCL WAVE...DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER E CUBA AND A RIDGE CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF
HISPANIOLA TO 16N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA ANCHORED
BY A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 20N70W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE ISLAND
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. SHOWERS AND TSTSM ARE OBSERVED S
OF PUERTO RICO TO 16N AND WITHIN 30 NM FROM THE NE COAST OF THE
ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
DUE TO A TRPCL WAVE E OF THE ISLANDS...FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA
AND A RIDGE CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF HISPANIOLA TO 16N. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA ANCHORED BY A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
20N70W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
29N83W...THE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
BASIN IS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER N OF HISPANIOLA WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TRPCL CYCLONE EITHER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE
E BASIN THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 26N24W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 20N37W. RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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