[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 16N42W TO 07N44W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
HIGH MOISTURE. A SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS INDICATED IN MODEL
FIELDS BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF 11N BETWEEN 41W-
46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N64W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 05 TO 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LEADING EDGE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE. A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH IS
EVIDENT AT 700 MB BETWEEN 60W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 59W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...S MEXICO...AND
THE E PACIFIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N95W TO 13N95W...MOVING
W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 700 MB
TROUGHING IS INDICATED BETWEEN 92W-98W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO 11N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 08N42W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 08N44W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-12N
BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. TO THE E...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE
EASTERN GULF ALONG 86W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
26N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE FEATURES
AFFECTING THE W GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 91W-96W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W GULF. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N85W
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND E GULF
ALONG 86W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 13N65W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED E
OF PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WAVE...PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S
OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE E. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE REACHING THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 68W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW
W OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING
SE FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 26N70W TO
23N63W...THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 23N42W TO
32N25W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 140 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 19N58W TO 12N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 55W-62W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES NW. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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