[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT S OF 21N W
OF 95W IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 47W-57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 7N28W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N41W 8N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
9W-23W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 24W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N OF W
CUBA NEAR 25N84W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS FLORIDA
AND INTO THE W ATLC AND INCLUDES THE SE CONUS. A COMPLEX BUT
SHALLOW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW OFF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR
29N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
TUXPAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER S
ALABAMA ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N89W TO
THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER LOUISIANA
NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON
BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING IN THE E GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE BEFORE RETROGRADING TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY WINDS W
OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE S OF 21N W OF 95W THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW N OF
HISPANIOLA THEN ACROSS E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
THEN SW TO W PANAMA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 20N64W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 15N65W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-
69W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 16N TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-75W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
16N E OF 65W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 80W
TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN
75W-80W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
72W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SW
PENINSULA OF HAITI AND OVER THE FAR E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
LINE FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 34N72W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR 21N68W THEN OVER THE FAR E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N57W ALONG 27N60W TO
23N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 57W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N57W TO
29N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM S-SW OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO FORT
PIERCE FLORIDA ON MON THEN RETRACT E ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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