[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N34W TO 02N35W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FEATURE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W TO 09N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT
TO 06N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN
22W-33W.


THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W TO 4N31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
GENERAL FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO REACHING THE NW GULF N OF 23N AND W OF 93W. A BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL US AFFECTING ALSO THE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 91W-96W. TO THE E...A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW COVERING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
MAINLY E OF 90W. OVER THIS AREA...ISOLATED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS
PREVAIL. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF MAINLY W OF
95W WHILE AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MOVING E. A SURFACE RETURN FLOW WILL
PERSIST WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS
S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS.
DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED ONCE AGAIN TO
GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS IS NOTICED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLANTIC ENTERING OUR
AREA NEAR 31N61W TO 29N76W THEN BECOMING WEAK THROUGH 28N80W. TO
THE E...A BROAD 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS SURFACE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN AFRICA IS
SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...OR BEAUFORT SCALE 6...ACROSS
AND N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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