[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEAR GALE WINDS CONTINUE FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7
OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
BOTH ZONES. THE GALE IS DUE TO STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES
AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MOROCCO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...EXTENDING FROM 09N24W
TO 04N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE SOUTH OF 10N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N27W AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 08W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 03W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF FROM NEAR 28N83W TO 29N86W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N90W TO THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N98W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO
29N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM 23N93W TO
18N95W...MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N TO 25N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
27N86W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BASIN EAST OF 90W AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE BASIN
W OF 90W AND S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER DAYTIME CONVECTION
MAY MEANDER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 87W. PRIMARILY 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS NEARING 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. EXPECT PRIMARILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST NEAR 29N81W.
NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 64W WITH A BASE NEAR 24N SUPPORTS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. A 1037
MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER S OF
32N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO BETWEEN THE
AZORES HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER N AFRICA. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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