[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO FOR THIS MORNING. BEAUFORT 7-8 OR 32KT-46KT
WINDS ARE FORECAST. AN EARLIER 2126 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 10W-12W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 9W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM 4N-
6N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO
16N93W. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF
93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 97W-102W. THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS
PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG
100W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR
25N82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO
DISSIPATE AND THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S
LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE THE
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES E TO THE N BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 19N-20N
BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...AND
THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SW TO W FLOW
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN THU ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W. A 1011 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 29N52W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N46W TO 22N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THIS TROUGH N
OF 24N BETWEEN 35W-48W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 44N15W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E
OF 45W. AN EARLIER 2126 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 10W-12W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N47W ENHANCING THE SURFACE TROUGH. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N23W. EXPECT THE
LATTER TROUGH TO MOVE E AT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST OF MOROCCO UNTIL 1200 UTC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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