[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W TO 14N25W TO 07N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 25W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC REGION COVERS THE W
HALF OF THE BASIN W OF 90W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N82W. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 92W
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N92W TO 18N93W.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REPORT LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF MAINLY
N OF 27N AND W OF 92W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER.
WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE LIGHT FOG WILL DISSIPATE
TOWARDS THE MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
GULF AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
INTO THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THAT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT
WATERS MAINLY S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-81W. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
ARE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IS
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 69W-75W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO GENERATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N74W. FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
COVERS MOST OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE REGION AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N44W
TO 20N64W AND AS A WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH 21N70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
BETWEEN 41W-51W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1029 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N25W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME WEAK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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