[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151046 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY.
SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
04N20W TO 03N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N36W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A BREAK IN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
08N39W TO 04N40W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 04N42W AND EXTENDS TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 31W...AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 92W OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF...SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 22N91W TO 18N93W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 10 TO 15 KT E TO SE
WINDS COVER THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATER TODAY. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH THROUGH
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
THE WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH OVER COSTA RICA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWARD OVER THE
BELIZE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY. DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA TODAY WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN TO REPEAT AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N59W TO 27N65W TO 27N73W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO NORTH FL
NEAR 29N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 32N
BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N60W TO
22N63W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 41N20W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT REACHES FL WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FL TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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LATTO
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