[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
5N20W TO 5N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 5N30W TO 5N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-
6N BETWEEN 1W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W
TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT 30N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA...AND MOST OF THE
S COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 86W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E
TEXAS N OF28N BETWEEN 93W-98W. 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT
HOWEVER FOR THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NE GULF TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE S COAST OF CUBA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...N COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN
77W-79W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO
28N70W TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 59W-64W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N44W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC FROM
20N-35N BETWEEN 25W-60W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E TO 31N55W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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