[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131027 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND
79W...AND ALSO FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA REGION
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNED AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING
DURING THE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 05N30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS
EAST OF 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. VARIABLE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE FARTHER INLAND. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES THROUGH TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER GEORGIA...AND THE UPPER
LOW OVER CUBA...ENHANCES DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
FLORIDA AND CUBA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN PREVAILING
WINDS AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO
23N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...ONE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE OTHER NEAR
26N67W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N
BETWEEN 63W AND 81W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N51W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WITH
CONVECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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