[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-12.5N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER
COLOMBIA DEEPENING DURING THE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
6N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N18W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N-
24N W OF 96W. A SMALL 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF
81W. OUTSIDE OF THE NE GULF...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
MEXICO AND THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 100W WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E
OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TEXAS FRONT TO
RETROGRADE BACK NORTH TO CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT THE
CONVECTION OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. AS OF
2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
10N74W. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAKEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
81W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER NW HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
77W-80W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N54W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-35N BETWEEN 20W-
80W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-55W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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