[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KWNH 111449
TCPAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL012015
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...ANA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NC WHILE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 13 MILES...25 KM...WSW OF EDENTON NORTHEASTERN REGIONAL
AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...25 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
ALL PREVIOUS FLOOD WATCHES AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ANA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE LANDFALL
WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING 1014 MB.
NEVERTHELESS...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED A
PAIR OF HEALTHY RAINBAND STRUCTURES. THE EASTERN MOST BAND HAS
SKIRTED THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OUTER BANKS WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES BELOW -60C IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING WAS NOTED IN THIS BAND WITH GUSTY WINDS NOTED IN
OFFSHORE BUOYS AS SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED 30 MPH. MEANWHILE...A
SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION WITH MODERATE RAIN FALLING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER LAND HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES
WEAKENING WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF SURFACE/RADAR DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
HAS PICKED UP FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT IN ACCELERATING ANA TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN VA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY 21Z THIS
EVENING. ANA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS THIS OCCURS
WHILE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF ANA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...25 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB...29.95 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM EDT

...NORTH CAROLINA...
KINSTON 7 SE                         6.70
JACKSONVILLE 1 W                     5.45
VARNAMTOWN 1.8 ENE                   5.17
RICHLANDS 5.3 SSW                    5.04
SANDY RUN RAWS                       4.59
GURGANUS 0.5 N                       4.37
SOUTHPORT/BRUNSWICK                  4.26
SUNSET BEACH 3.4 N                   4.15
SWANSBORO 3.3 NW                     4.14
SUPPLY-NATURE CONSER                 4.06
INDIAN BEACH 2 NNE                   3.77
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT      3.16
MOREHEAD CITY 2.4 WNW                2.85

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH                   5.88
N MYRTLE BEACH                       4.33


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT  500 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RUBIN-OSTER

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 11/1500Z 36.0N 76.8W
12HR VT 12/0000Z 37.9N 75.0W...POST-TROPICAL
24HR VT 12/1200Z 40.8N 70.1W...POST-TROPICAL
36HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED
$$
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