[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA IS NEAR 32.9N
78.3W OR ABOUT 56 NM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING
NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 74W-79W. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM
11.5N-14N BETWEEN 71W-77W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 09-
13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 05N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 03N36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
30N87W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS NE REACHING THE W
GULF SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO
TROPICAL STORM ANA EXTENDS S ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE W
CARIBBEAN KEEPING A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH RELATED TO THE TROPICAL STORM ANA EXTENDS S REACHING THE
W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 74W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION AFFECTING CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. TO THE E OF 74W...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N
BETWEEN 67W-76W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING SLOWLY
NW. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR
28N55W. TO THE N OF THIS HIGH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W
TO 31N38W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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