[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ANA...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA TRANSITIONED TO TROPICAL STORM ANA AT
09/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.6N 77.8W AT
09/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 100 NM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 87 NM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NW AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER OVER THE NE QUADRANT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE CENTER INCLUDING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS
HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTING SUN NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 5N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES T.S. ANA EXTENDS
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS IN THE W ATLC. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 92W-96W TO INLAND
OVER W LOUISIANA/E TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING.
GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA STARTING SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THEN WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD TO GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES T.S. ANA EXTENDS THROUGH
32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AND IS GENERATING BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N21W ALONG 28N33W TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N52W TO
30N60W. T.S. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY N-NW AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E IN THE WAKE OF ANA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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