[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
08N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N18W TO 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 06W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING
FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN
PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE TROUGHING
LACKS A SURFACE FRONT...SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING IS REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
21N83W TO THE WESTERN HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N87W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE THE
PRIMARY INGREDIENT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
17N BETWEEN 74W-85W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR
ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY...FLASH
FLOODING AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A THREAT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES E OF 78W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER...HOWEVER CLOUDINESS IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND MOVES GENERALLY NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS MORNING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...
AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS
FROM 23N77W TO 27N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-31N W OF 67W. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FARTHER EAST...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF 37N29W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N38W
SW TO 25N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 22W-36W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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