[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 1S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN 0W-20W...AND FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN
34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW...WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE TAIL END OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
21N70W TO 19N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT TO INCLUDE E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA. FURTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N70W TO 29N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE
FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO
24N55W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AT 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N40W TO 20N40W. A 1038
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N18W. SURFACE
RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. OF INTEREST
OVER THE THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-45W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO
MOVE N OF 31N...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT CONTINUES
DRIFT E TO 31N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net