[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01S30W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S38W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S TO 05N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH CENTERS OF 1023 MB IS
OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N86W AND THE W ATLC NEAR 28N75W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. E TO SE
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE S AND W GULF. S TO SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE N AND NE GULF. DRY AIR AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE CONTINUE
IN PLACE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 18N80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 150 NM N OF THE
SHEAR LINE TO 100 NM S OF THE SHEAR LINE. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN TRADE WIND MOISTURE
E OF 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. E TO NE
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE
SHEAR LINE. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE REMNANT SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
HAITI NEAR 20N72W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ISLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH CENTERS OF 1023 MB IS
OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N86W AND THE W ATLC NEAR 28N75W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS TO
24N60W TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 70 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N39W TO 22N38W. THIS TROUGH WAS A REFLECTION OF A
UPPER LOW NEAR 38N33W THAT IS NOW BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION LATER
TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN
24W AND 33W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT OFF THE E US COAST WILL MOVE INTO OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N FL COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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