[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 1S20W TO 3S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 1S-4S
BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W
PRODUCING 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WEAKEST
WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH TO FORM OVER THE E GULF IN 24 HOURS AT
27N86W. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OVER NE FLORIDA FROM GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AT 20N74W TO N OF JAMAICA AT 19N77W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. LIGHTNING DETECTION ALSO SHOWS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 84W-87W. FURTHER S... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
IS OVER N COLOMBIA...E PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER E...
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SHEAR LINE TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE ISLAND AS A FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W
TO 24N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 26N51W. FURTHER E...A 1016 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N41W TO
THE LOW CENTER TO 19N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 34W-37W. OF INTEREST OVER THE THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N57W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS CENTER FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 26W-
31W. EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE
US COAST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 30N ON
TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA


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