[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N10W SW TO 01S17W TO 04S27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 04S27W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN
06W AND 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO THE EQUATOR W OF
18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS SW TO A
BASE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATE A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THESE REGIONS AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO E OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N87W. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 25N90W. WIND
FLOW FROM THE N-NE OF 15 KT IS S OF 24N E OF 90W...INCREASING TO
20 KT OVER THE SE BASIN E OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N87W. WIND
FLOW FROM THE S-SE OF 15 KT IS ON THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W.
LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW
ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N77W
SW TO 17N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE
FRONT N OF 19N. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA
THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA S OF 15N. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR
WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE FRONT SUPPORT NW FLOW UP TO 20 KT W OF 79W.
SIMILARLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORT
TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. LIGHTER VARIABLE
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
HISPANIOLA SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL START TO DISSIPATE SW TO
HONDURAS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
OVER HAITI...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND MONDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THAT DAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC
WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N64W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
21N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO EASTERN
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN
A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER SW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W
SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N35W SW TO 23N41W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 175 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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