[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
00N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N21W TO 03S34W TO 01N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-05N
BETWEEN 01W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07S-03N BETWEEN 23W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND OVER THE NW
GULF NEAR 30N92W AND ALONG 27N94W TO THE EXTREME NE MEXICO COAST
JUST S OF 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INLAND LOUISIANA TO JUST OFFSHORE MOBILE NEAR 30N88W
AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OF
1018 MB IS LOCATED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W. ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OCCURRING AROUND THE HIGH AND SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. NW SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE NW OF THE
COLD FRONT.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E
TO SPAN N TO S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE E GULF MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADE
WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHER
THAN PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING
JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY

...HISPANIOLA...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS...FAIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND
OVER THE W ATLC TO 31N80W. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1016 MB SURFACE
LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 76W AND THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS OVER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N59W TO 27N65W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N56W TO 26N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 51W-62W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST W OF THE AZORES DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN S OF 32N AND E OF
50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO THE N FL
COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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