[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO
0N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 0N21W TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 1W-16W...AND FROM 4N-8S BETWEEN
20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT
30N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW GULF TO NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N98W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE LOW TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 31N81W. GOES-R PROVING
GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N E OF 87W. MORE PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W TO INCLUDE THE
TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 86W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
GULF...AND THE NORTH GULF STATES E OF TEXAS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N87W. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
21N91W WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS S OF PUERTO
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EL SALVADOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 27N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM N OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N60W TO 25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-50W. A 1007 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N14W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
28N13W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W TO INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND
EXTEND FROM 31N56W TO 25N66W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
30N11W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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