[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
1S26W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S26W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
10W-13W...FROM 4S-7S BETWEEN 23W-28W...AND FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN
31W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. GOES-R
PROVING GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 29N E OF 86W. FURTHER
W...THE NW GULF HAS 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN
COASTS. A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AT 30N94W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S TEXAS AT 26N99W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO
17N93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF E
OF 90W WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...
AND THE NORTH GULF STATES. EXPECT IN 24 HOUR FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 17N AND E OF 63W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N72W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N47W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 26N50W TO 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
40W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORTING
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 36N6W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO
26N70W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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