[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210454
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
1N20W TO 1S25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S25W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6S BETWEEN 21W-27W... AND
FROM 2S-5S BETWEEN 31W-39W.
	
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. GOES-R
PROVING GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 29N E OF 86W. FURTHER
W...THE NW GULF HAS 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN
COASTS. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS AT 30N96W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO 17N91W. 10-15 KT NE
SURFACE WINDS ARE THUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND THE NORTH GULF
STATES. EXPECT IN 24 HOUR FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 17N AND E OF 63W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N47W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N45W TO 23N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF
40W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORTING
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 36N6W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO
27N70W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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