[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
2N15W TO 1S25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S25W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5S BETWEEN 15W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-1S BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. GOES-R
PROVING GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N E OF 85W. FURTHER
W...THE NW GULF HAS 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN
COASTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NORTH GULF
STATES. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 26N67W TO
27N78W TO JACKSONVILLE FL AT 30N81W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N48W TO 25N60W TO 26N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE COLD FRONT. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 24N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 50W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 34N10W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM
31N45W TO 23N52W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE W ATLANTIC AND REACH 31N74W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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