[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N14W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. THE ITCZ
IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 2W-
6W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER
MISSISSIPPI TO TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA
BAY WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FORT MYERS THEN
ALONG 26N83W TO 28N86W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO INLAND
OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
BEGUN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN THEN NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 18N64W 18N75W TO 16N87W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT. FRESH
E TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT WITH STRONG TRADES BRIEFLY SAT
NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF
HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 28N64W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A
WEAK 1015 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA THEN
CONTINUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO A 1018 MB HIGH NE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS 24N57W. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG
27N THEN WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N72W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND FROM 32N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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