[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190533 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N14W 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 85W. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SE CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH A WEAK
1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
ALONG 28N87W TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A
1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THU THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE NW GULF SAT NIGHT AND STALL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16.5N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W-68W AND OVER THE W END OF JAMAICA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT. FRESH
E TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT WITH STRONG TRADES BRIEFLY SAT
NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
MOST OF HAITI BETWEEN 70W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N59W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 28N68W TO 28N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A
WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N32W 25N48W TO A 1018 MB HIGH N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 24N64W.
THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
BEFORE IT STALLS NEAR 27N LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. THE FRONT WILL
THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES
COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC DURING
FRI REACHING FROM NEAR 32N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND
FROM NEAR 32N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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