[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N12W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N26W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-38W THEN S INTO THE
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E
OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W ATLC AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN NW TO THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM
24N95W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
W GULF S OF 29N W OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE
N GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE N GULF THEN PERSIST
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED W ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED FAST MOVING...
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 67W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-
19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE TRADE WIND FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA S OF 13N W OF 81W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA MAINLY AT NIGHT BUT GENERALLY MODERATE
TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE W
PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF MON. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE MON WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TO THE N INCREASING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR TUE INTO WED BEFORE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDS TO
29N79W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
S OF 27N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N42W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS TO 28N35W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES TO 25N41W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND
REACH FROM 32N60W ALONG 27N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY
MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 32N51W ALONG 22N65W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY TUE BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG
21N THROUGH EARLY WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N EARLY
WED REACHING AS FAR S AS 27N BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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