[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131637
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE HIGH WINDS ARE BEING
CAUSED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1007 MB LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
29N...IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL TOPOGRAPHICAL WIND
ENHANCEMENTS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 2W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 12W-23W...FROM 1N-2S BETWEEN 23W-36W...
AND FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 29N90W TO 24N89W TO 19N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 84W-89W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 86W-88W. 20-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE
NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N95W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF
WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO GULF OF CAMPECHE
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS
THE SEA MOSTLY N OF 13N AND E OF 87W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO
RICO CONFIRMS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ALONG 75W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NE HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 26N60W TO
26N70W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FRON 20N-30N E OF 45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N40W TO 24N54W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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