[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
GALE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. A 0158 AND 0250
UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED 35 KT ENE WINDS RIGHT
ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THE HIGH WINDS ARE
BEING CAUSED BY THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1003 MB
LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL TOPOGRAPHICAL WIND
ENHANCEMENTS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N11W TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W THEN TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15 AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF 03N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 0W
TO 05W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT 29N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE COAST OF YUCATAN AT 21N90W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM YUCATAN TO THE U.S. GULF
COAST WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT BASED UPON GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...LIGHTNING DATA...AND THE U.S. WSR-88D RADAR NETWORK.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF 22N TO
THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. THE CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED
BY FORCING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER MEXICO ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.  SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS PEAK WEST
OF THE COLD FRONT ARE 25-30 KT...AS SEEN IN THE 0254 UTC ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS.  WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF ARE
GENERALLY 10-20 KT SE. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND WEAKEN...WHILE THE
WEAK LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSS THE U.S. GULF
COAST.  THE ADVECTION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH FORCING BY
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE GALE CONDITION DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS NO SURFACE FEATURES OF INTEREST NOR IS THERE ANY
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS ALONG 75W...WHICH IS PROMOTING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THE GALE CONDITIONS NEAR COLOMBIA ARE
ALSO FORCING E TO NE TRADEWINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS
DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE COASTS WILL BE
A BRISK 20-25 KT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS THE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N24W SOUTHWESTWARD TO A
RIDGELINE ALONG 27N TO A 1039 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND.
TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY NE 10-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED OUR NORTHERN BORDER...EXTENDING FROM
32N58W TO 30N81W AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WEST OF 75W ARE NE 25-30 KT...AS OBSERVED BY
SCATTEROMETER AND THE 41002 BUOY.  THE FRONT IS NOT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND REACH DOWN TO ABOUT 25N.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CUT OFF
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W...THOUGH NO SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE
FEATURE NOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS CURRENTLY PRESENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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