[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112039 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...CORRECTED TO CHANGE ANALYSIS TIME TO 1200 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. AN EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS WHILE
AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 16 FT IN THE
WARNING AREA. THESE HIGH WINDS ARE BEING CAUSED BY THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW OF 1006
MB AND A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N58W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING AS
STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST
REGION TO MAINTAIN A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N10W TO 3N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 1N28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 1N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO A 1012
MB LOW PRES THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
25N84W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LOW
CENTER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WHILE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND OVER NE MEXICO. THE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUPPORTED BY FORCING FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE N-
NE ALONG FRONT AND INTO SW LOUISIANA THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE N GULF TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
EARLY SUN...WHILE THE S PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 15-20
KT OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRES. THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRES LOCATED EAST OF
BERMUDA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION. MAINLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF
OF VENEZUELA...AND NE-E WINDS OF 25 KT ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME OF THEN ARE NOW
CROSSING THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MAINLY EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AN AXIS ALONG 75W...WHICH IS PROMOTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS
DOMINATE THE ISLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N58W. TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-20 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH 20-25 KT WINDS OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N43W TO 26N51W...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CUT OFF
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY FROM 20-25N BETWEEN 38-46W. DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM. A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL EXTENDING MAINLY E-W WILL REACH 31N W OF 60W BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR/NR

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