[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND PULSE AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE WEST OVER NW MEXICO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG
105W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE...A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS EAST TEXAS NEAR 31N96W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO 29N96W TO BROWNSVILLE
AND THEN INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY NW OF
A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT TO THE N-NE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING PROVIDING AN OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT WITHIN STABLE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT. ASIDE FROM PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM PUERTO
RICO TO 14N68W AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CENTRAL AMERICA COAST S OF 16N W OF 78W...THE LARGEST IMPACT
REMAINS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES W OF 82W. THIS
AREA ALSO INCLUDES NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NOTED TO THE EAST IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO
RICO CURRENTLY...WILL PROVIDE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A PASSING
ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE E-NE TO 27N55W. WITH A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN IN PLACE...THE ONLY BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N49W TO
27N62W. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N66W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N30W
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NE PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...A
CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W THAT
SUPPORTS INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 40W-49W. LIKELY
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THIS AREA OF
MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FINALLY...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 22N15W
THAT SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N18W. WHILE OVERALL
CONVECTION LACKS WITH THIS FEATURE...THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATES A STRONG PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST
FROM 15N-32N E OF 40W. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUADHIBOU INTL AIRPORT IN WESTERN MAURITANIA
AND AMILCAR CABRIL INTL AIRPORT IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE
INDICATED REDUCED VISIBILITY AND BLOWING DUST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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