[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W THEN ALONG 8N13W TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N18W 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO
27N88W IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF. TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND E TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS W OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE REMNANT
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N83W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM
N OF THE FRONT. A LINGERING 1018 MB LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR
19N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SW OF LINE FROM 22N95W TO
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
OVER NE LOUISIANA AND A SERIES OF HIGHS IN THE W ATLC. THE LOW
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A NEW STATIONARY FRONT WILL FORM OVER
THE N GULF COASTAL PLAINS MON THEN LIFT N AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT AND SLOWLY
PASS E REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 20N
COVERING THE AREA W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO 17N68W. VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO GIVE PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF 20N. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TUE.
THE W TROPICAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON TUE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 65W WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS
JUST N OF THE REGION. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW INTO
THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A LINGERING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N62W TO 27N70W
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 23N64W TO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
27N42W TO BEYOND 32N33W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS RACING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 21N58W TO 14N57W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 26W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N17W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 25N21W TO 27N24W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN
DUST WRAPPED INTO THIS LOW/TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
31N35W. THE NE PORTION OF FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER E BY MON WHILE
THE W PORTION WILL DISSOLVE AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH
MON NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 30N TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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